WC 2026 Forecast — Almanac

WC 2026 Forecastv0.5

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FIFA World Cup 2026 · Retrospective

Retrospective unavailable — the frozen data hasn’t been published yet.

WC 2026 Forecast

Daily outcome forecasts for the 2026 World Cup, from a Bayesian state-space Poisson model with a squad market-value covariate.

How to read this

Every number here is our model’s, refreshed daily. “Market” columns are the implied probabilities from Polymarket; “Edge” is model minus market — where we disagree with the crowd.

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© 2026 WC Forecast·model v0.5-ss-mv·built by Maiko Sell + Sadra Khosravi, with Claude Code·probabilities are model output, not betting advice