WC 2026 Forecastv0.5
Live·FIFA World Cup 2026 · United 26—days to kickoff
The daily forecast

Brazil leads the race at 0%

Our Bayesian model played all 104 matches 10,000times. Here’s where it landed — our numbers against the market’s.

BRA
13.3
mkt 12.4
FRA
11.6
mkt 10.7
ESP
10.0
mkt 9.3
ENG
8.7
mkt 8.1
ARG
7.5
mkt 7.0
GER
6.5
mkt 6.1
POR
5.7
mkt 5.3
NED
4.9
mkt 4.6
BEL
4.3
mkt 4.0
ITA
3.7
mkt 3.4
BRA
13.3
mkt 12.4
FRA
11.6
mkt 10.7
ESP
10.0
mkt 9.3
ENG
8.7
mkt 8.1
ARG
7.5
mkt 7.0
GER
6.5
mkt 6.1
POR
5.7
mkt 5.3
NED
4.9
mkt 4.6
BEL
4.3
mkt 4.0
ITA
3.7
mkt 3.4
BRA
13.3
mkt 12.4
FRA
11.6
mkt 10.7
ESP
10.0
mkt 9.3
ENG
8.7
mkt 8.1
ARG
7.5
mkt 7.0
GER
6.5
mkt 6.1
POR
5.7
mkt 5.3
NED
4.9
mkt 4.6
BEL
4.3
mkt 4.0
ITA
3.7
mkt 3.4
BRA
13.3
mkt 12.4
FRA
11.6
mkt 10.7
ESP
10.0
mkt 9.3
ENG
8.7
mkt 8.1
ARG
7.5
mkt 7.0
GER
6.5
mkt 6.1
POR
5.7
mkt 5.3
NED
4.9
mkt 4.6
BEL
4.3
mkt 4.0
ITA
3.7
mkt 3.4
↓ scroll for the full picture

Where it stands

10,000 sims · updated 9d ago
Favourite
0%
Brazil
Top 4 hold
0%
combined title odds
Best value
+0
Brazil vs market
Dark horse
0%
#9 Belgium
Brazil_R_45clubfb_0+0.9
France_R_49clubfb_0+0.8
Spain_R_4dclubfb_0+0.7
England_R_4hclubfb_0+0.6
Argentina_R_4lclubfb_0+0.5
Germany_R_4pclubfb_0+0.4
● indigo bar = model  |  │ tick = market  |  ∿ Elo trend  |  edge = model − market (pp)

Path to glory

chance of reaching each stage · top 8

scroll horizontally to see every round →

R16QFSFFinalChampion
Brazil0%0%0%0%0%
France0%0%0%0%0%
Spain0%0%0%0%0%
England0%0%0%0%0%
Argentina0%0%0%0%0%
Germany0%0%0%0%0%
Portugal0%0%0%0%0%
Netherlands0%0%0%0%0%

Around the field

strength by region, value & dark horses

Title odds by region

Central Europe
7 teams · 1,948 Elo
0%
Brazil-Argentina
2 teams · 2,057 Elo
0%
Iberia
2 teams · 2,031 Elo
0%
British Isles
1 team · 2,047 Elo
0%
Eastern Europe
4 teams · 1,808 Elo
0%
CONCACAF
6 teams · 1,625 Elo
0%

Value vs the market

model − market
Brazil
model 13.3 · mkt 12.4
+0
pts edge
France
model 11.6 · mkt 10.7
+0
pts edge
Spain
model 10.0 · mkt 9.3
+0
pts edge
England
model 8.7 · mkt 8.1
+0
pts edge

Dark horses

outside the top 8
9Belgium_R_31lqclubfb_0%
10Italy_R_32lqclubfb_0%
11Croatia_R_33lqclubfb_0%
12Uruguay_R_34lqclubfb_0%
13Colombia_R_35lqclubfb_0%

Toss-ups & movements

Truest toss-ups

All →

No toss-ups in today’s edition yet — the group fixtures appear here once the schedule is drawn into the model.

Latest movements

News →

No confirmed absences yet. Injuries, suspensions, and manager changes will land here once the news feed is wired up.

How to read this

Every number here is our model’s, refreshed daily from a Bayesian state-space Poisson fit with a squad market-value covariate. “Market” columns are the implied probabilities from Polymarket; “Edge” is model minus market — where we disagree with the crowd.

See the methodology for how the model is built and calibrated.