How we predict

We fit a Bayesian state-space Poisson model to international results, with a squad market-value covariate, then play the full bracket out tens of thousands of times.

The model

Each team carries time-varying attack and defence ratings. Match goals are Poisson with a home-advantage term; the posterior is sampled so every probability carries a credible interval, not just a point estimate.

From simulations to probabilities

We simulate the group stage and knockouts many times. A team’s probability of reaching a round is simply the share of simulations in which it got there — read straight from the run, never hand-tuned.

Model vs Polymarket

We show the Polymarket tournament-winner odds alongside our numbers and the “edge” between them. Our model is independent of the market; where they disagree most is where there’s most to watch.